Tailo-Research

EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both holding steady against the dollar as traders wait on the PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — before committing to a direction. EUR/USD is trading near 1.1670 and GBP/USD near 1.3632, with markets largely pricing in a Fed rate cut at the September meeting.

What Traders Are Watching

The dollar is stuck in neutral. The US Dollar Index has been consolidating for days as markets wait on the PCE price index before committing to a direction, and a September rate cut is already the market’s base case — the PCE print will determine whether that pricing gets reinforced or questioned rather than whether a cut happens at all.

Both majors have avoided a decisive break in either direction heading into the data: EUR/USD is holding near 1.1670 and GBP/USD above roughly 1.3632. The same week brings Nvidia’s earnings report, meaning risk sentiment from equities could compound whatever direction the PCE data ultimately pushes the dollar.

What This Means If You’re Trading Forex

A PCE print that surprises meaningfully in either direction — hotter or cooler than expected — can move both pairs sharply as rate-cut odds get repriced within minutes, so this is a market where the data release itself matters more than the current holding pattern.

With both pairs sitting near key levels rather than mid-range, a decisive break either way once the data lands is likely to carry more follow-through than a typical range-bound session.

Major currency pairs see some of their sharpest moves around US inflation data. Vantage Markets offers CFDs on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and other major forex pairs for traders tracking this theme.

Related reading: For more on the dollar’s recent moves, see US Dollar Hits a Three-Month Low Despite Bullish Bets and Oil Drops Sharply as Geopolitical Risk Eases for another macro-driven CFD move this week.

---

Risk Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Affiliate Disclosure: This post contains an affiliate link. If you sign up through it, Tailo Research may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only recommend brokers and products we believe offer genuine value to our readers.